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  • #61
    Panic merchant claim 3,600


    Now there are 400.

    Nine fold error.

    Originally posted by Electric Skeptic View Post

    Due to this large number of unknowing carriers, the number of cases doubles approximately every 3 days. So in 3 days, there'll be 1,800 cases in Arizona. In 3 more days, 3,600. By the time we get to this time next month (April 15) we reach 921,600 cases in Arizona.

    Please, if you disagree with this post, don't waste everybody's time calling me a liberal, or a panic-merchant, .
    The facts disagree with you.

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by Electric Skeptic View Post
      Looking at a few websites, I decided to focus on the numbers regarding coronavirus.

      I live in Arizona, so I'll use that as an example. As at 3/16, there were 18 known cases in Arizona.

      Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimates that for every known case, there are 50 unknown cases - people walking around with the virus without knowing it.

      So there are actually about 900 cases in Arizona now.

      Due to this large number of unknowing carriers, the number of cases doubles approximately every 3 days. So in 3 days, there'll be 1,800 cases in Arizona. In 3 more days, 3,600. By the time we get to this time next month (April 15) we reach 921,600 cases in Arizona.

      Thus far, about 15% of cases have been serious enough to warrant hospitalisation. So that's 15% of 921,600 cases = 138,240 cases in Arizona which will require hospitalisation.

      There are 13,296 hospital beds in Arizona. In the US, at any given time, about 65% of hospital beds are occupied. So in Arizona, there are about 4,654 vacant hospital beds. For 138,240 people.

      That means that out of every 30 people who contract coronavirus serious enough to need hospitalisation, there will be no bed for 29 of them.

      Please, if you disagree with this post, don't waste everybody's time calling me a liberal, or a panic-merchant, or rant about the huge hoax for whatever conspiracy reason you like.

      Instead, attack the numbers. Dispute those. Tell me where the figures I'm using are wrong, because believe me, I'm very very eager to hear that I'm wrong and we won't have to turn away 29 out of every 30 serious cases of the virus.
      Just want to point out that what you said with your numbers would happen isn't happening...

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by howie View Post
        Just want to point out that what you said with your numbers would happen isn't happening...
        The number of known cases has increased faster than the OP suggested (i.e. doubling every 3 days). Since the OP, the doubling has been every 2 days, on average.

        https://covidtracking.com/data/state/arizona/#history

        As for the number of unknown cases, we don't know. That's why they are called unknown.

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by howie View Post
          Just want to point out that what you said with your numbers would happen isn't happening...
          No, it's worse.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by Electric Skeptic View Post
            No, it's worse.
            No it's not.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by Stoic View Post

              The number of known cases has increased faster than the OP suggested (i.e. doubling every 3 days). Since the OP, the doubling has been every 2 days, on average.

              https://covidtracking.com/data/state/arizona/#history

              As for the number of unknown cases, we don't know. That's why they are called unknown.
              lol. No it's not.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Electric Skeptic View Post
                Looking at a few websites, I decided to focus on the numbers regarding coronavirus.

                I live in Arizona, so I'll use that as an example. As at 3/16, there were 18 known cases in Arizona.

                Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimates that for every known case, there are 50 unknown cases - people walking around with the virus without knowing it.

                So there are actually about 900 cases in Arizona now.

                Due to this large number of unknowing carriers, the number of cases doubles approximately every 3 days. So in 3 days, there'll be 1,800 cases in Arizona. In 3 more days, 3,600. By the time we get to this time next month (April 15) we reach 921,600 cases in Arizona.

                Thus far, about 15% of cases have been serious enough to warrant hospitalisation. So that's 15% of 921,600 cases = 138,240 cases in Arizona which will require hospitalisation.

                There are 13,296 hospital beds in Arizona. In the US, at any given time, about 65% of hospital beds are occupied. So in Arizona, there are about 4,654 vacant hospital beds. For 138,240 people.

                That means that out of every 30 people who contract coronavirus serious enough to need hospitalisation, there will be no bed for 29 of them.

                Please, if you disagree with this post, don't waste everybody's time calling me a liberal, or a panic-merchant, or rant about the huge hoax for whatever conspiracy reason you like.

                Instead, attack the numbers. Dispute those. Tell me where the figures I'm using are wrong, because believe me, I'm very very eager to hear that I'm wrong and we won't have to turn away 29 out of every 30 serious cases of the virus.
                where is the citation supporting the estimate of 50 unknown cases for every known case?

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Ignatius View Post

                  where is the citation supporting the estimate of 50 unknown cases for every known case?
                  Who cares. Unknown cases are unknown. 50 is a guess.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by howie View Post
                    lol. No it's not.
                    If the number of cases exactly doubled every 2 days since March 16, the numbers would be 18, 36, 72, 144, 288, 576 on March 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, and 26 respectively.

                    The actual numbers are 18, 28, 65, 152, 357, 577.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Stoic View Post

                      If the number of cases exactly doubled every 2 days since March 16, the numbers would be 18, 36, 72, 144, 288, 576 on March 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, and 26 respectively.

                      The actual numbers are 18, 28, 65, 152, 357, 577.
                      Pal, the numbers worldwide aren't adding up.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by howie View Post
                        Who cares. Unknown cases are unknown. 50 is a guess.
                        LOL I certainly inderstand they are a guess but the poster presented it as fact and reached conclusions based on unsubstantiated claims. I merely would like to see how that number was reached. If they through a dart at a bunch of numbers and it hit "50" then its important to know that or if they had some other type of method that is more sensible. The CDC reports today that after how many weeks of this virus in the US there are 1,074 deaths. Thats not even one week of deaths caused by the flu last year but they have shut everything down. If the poster has valid numbers i want to see them.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Electric Skeptic View Post
                          No, it's worse.
                          You need to show us not tell us

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Ignatius View Post

                            LOL I certainly inderstand they are a guess but the poster presented it as fact and reached conclusions based on unsubstantiated claims. I merely would like to see how that number was reached. If they through a dart at a bunch of numbers and it hit "50" then its important to know that or if they had some other type of method that is more sensible. The CDC reports today that after how many weeks of this virus in the US there are 1,074 deaths. Thats not even one week of deaths caused by the flu last year but they have shut everything down. If the poster has valid numbers i want to see them.
                            I stated in the OP that it was a Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by Electric Skeptic View Post
                              I stated in the OP that it was a Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate
                              You find wrong sources and fall for them.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Ignatius View Post

                                You need to show us not tell us
                                He is blowing smoke.



                                Comment

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