Electric Skeptic
Well-known member
I look into my crystal ball and see...
- For the next several years, many states looking to increase their anti-abortion-ness. States that have laws forbidding abortion after a certain point will push that point back; states that already forbid it will try to extend that forbiden-ness. They'll do things like:
- make it illegal not just to get an abortion in the state, but to travel to another state to get an abortion (for those states which don't already do that).
- make it illegal to help someone go to another state to get an abortion. So if you lend a friend $50 and she uses it to take a Greyhound to the next state over and gets an abortion there, if the authorities find out, you're an accessory.
- make it illegal to help someone from their state to get an abortion even if you are in another state. So, a Texas woman takes the bus to (for example) California. While there she stays with a woman she found online and gets her abortion. When she gets back to Texas, she's charged and so is the woman she stayed with in California. They'll try to extradite her which will fail, and the charges will therefore mean little. Unless the woman in California ever travels to Texas, in which case they'll grab her and prosecute her there. Or she travels to some other state that has a similar position on abortion to Texas, in which case that state will extradite her to Texas, and then they'll prosecute her. Won't that be a lovely position for the country to be in?
- A very bad time for Democrats at the mid-terms. Historically there's almost always a push back on the President's party at the mid-terms and I think it'll be very bad this time. The causes for that will be several - Biden's (and the Democrats') lacklustre performance since 2020, the Trumpites' eagerness to go along with whatever he says, and the lack of the urgency felt in 2020 by Democrat voters. I think it will be mitigated, if at all, only slightly by a Roe vs Wade pushback. Liberal women are horrified at the decision and will be more emphatic about voting Democrat...but they would have voted Democrat anyway. It won't push any Republicans to the liberal side...at best it might get a few 'undecideds' to vote Democrat. It won't be anything like enough. The Dems will lose their majority in both houses, which will make the rest of Biden's term even less remarkable than the first two years. And no, despite the urgings of some of their voters, the Republicans in power won't be stupid enough to try to impeach Biden.
- Trump running to become the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. He'll be the same Trump as last time, except moreso. He'll throw out even more irrational lies against his opponents (and anybody else he feels like attacking). There'll be some new revelations about his behaviour before 2020 and his behaviour while he was President, and the Trumpites won't care. He'll win in a landslide.
- Trump winning the 2024 Presidential election. It won't be close. The Trumpites will be as fired up as they were in 2020, but the Democrats won't. The anti-Trump vote was what pushed Biden's tally so high in 2020, but after almost four (4) years without Trump as President, people's memories will fade. There (obviously) won't be the same "get him out of power at all costs" mentality that there was in 2020, and there won't be a "keep him out of power at all costs" mentality to take over. He might even win the popular vote. But if he doesn't win every state except the very solidly liberal ones, he'll whine about the states he lost and say there was cheating and fraud and he should have won there, too. He'll appoint a committee to investigate and, like the committee investigating all the California fraud in 2020, it'll quitely disband a year later after being completely unable to find the slightest shred of evidence of any cheating or fraud. Trumpites won't care. They'll continue echoing whatever lies he comes up with.
- While Trump is in power, he will of course appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court (assuming a vacancy comes up during his term), happily turning a blind eye (like all the Trumpites) to the lies those justices will tell in order to get appointed ("established law").
- During his term, unfettered by the need to keep voters onside for the next election (if he was ever fettered by that at all), Trump will be more Trumplike than he was previously. Expect him to behave like a nine-year old, insulting, attacking, increasing his already impressive count of lies and in general 'MLSA' - Making America the Laughing stock of the world Again.
- Thanks to Thomas' little agenda, an obliging state will declare same-sex marriage illegal and it will wind its way to the Supreme Court, where the conservative majority will find that there's not a Constitutional right to it after all and will overturn Obergefell v. Hodges. The country will descend to a patchwork of some states where it's legal and some states where it's not, and there'll be endless lawsuits about how, whether and under what circumstances the 'not' states will have to recognise same-sex marriages made (a) during the time when there was a constitutional right to it and (b) after the time when there was a constitutional right to it but in states where it is legal. Oh, and Kavanaugh and co will demonstrate again how stupid people were to believe him when he lied about the effect of the overturning of Roe on other rights. Conservative 'Christians', of course, will not care in the least that a Justice in the highest court in the land lied, just like they don't care now that he did so to get to that court.
- Further erosion of the 1st amendment as Christian rules/laws/traditions get further enshrined into law and courts increasingly find that no, doing so isn't a violation of the Constitution at all. Rights of all of those who are not conservative 'Christians' will decrease.
- After their joy at getting same-sex marriage ruled to not be constitutionally protected, the conservative 'Christians' will go after Lawrence v. Texas and find an obliging state to declare sodomy illegal (but only between two males, of course). It'll go up to the Supreme Court where, surprise, surprise, they'll decide that the Constitution doesn't protect the right of consenting adults to do what they like in their own bedrooms, and homosexuality will be effectively illegal in about half of the country.
- So the conservative 'Christians' have managed to get rid of constitutional protection for homosexual acts and same-sex marriage. Now they'll go after offending heterosexuals and look to getting Griswold v. Connecticut overturned, then pass laws against couples (even married ones) using contraceptives.
- They'll probably wait until Thomas is off the bench before they go for Loving v. Virginia. Again, their path will be some hick state prosecuting somebody and it ending up at the Supreme Court. But I think this step is some decades away.
- Now entering really long range stuff...Brown v. Board of Education? Wouldn't surprise me.
In short, a bad time for civil rights in America. The left has worked hard over the last fifty or sixty years to improve rights for all kinds of minorities - now the right will work just as hard to take them away again. Well, except for their own, of course. They'll be doing everything they can to get more rights for male conservative 'Christians'. And in fifty or sixty years, all the women and minorities who voted conservative will realise that they have nobody to blame but themselves.
There's a scene in the show Handmaid's Tale where the conservative 'Christians' have finally won and taken over. A woman who has been instrumental in getting them there, who for years was an author and lecturer pushing the 'Christian' conservative agenda, is very excited and wants to go into the chamber where the conservative 'Christians' now in power are debating and discussing how their new state will move forward - she, an intelligent woman, wants to contribute. She is very firmly told that her opinion is not needed, and sent home. This is men's business. It's only then that she realises what she's done to herself and other women. I find that likely to be prophetic...
- For the next several years, many states looking to increase their anti-abortion-ness. States that have laws forbidding abortion after a certain point will push that point back; states that already forbid it will try to extend that forbiden-ness. They'll do things like:
- make it illegal not just to get an abortion in the state, but to travel to another state to get an abortion (for those states which don't already do that).
- make it illegal to help someone go to another state to get an abortion. So if you lend a friend $50 and she uses it to take a Greyhound to the next state over and gets an abortion there, if the authorities find out, you're an accessory.
- make it illegal to help someone from their state to get an abortion even if you are in another state. So, a Texas woman takes the bus to (for example) California. While there she stays with a woman she found online and gets her abortion. When she gets back to Texas, she's charged and so is the woman she stayed with in California. They'll try to extradite her which will fail, and the charges will therefore mean little. Unless the woman in California ever travels to Texas, in which case they'll grab her and prosecute her there. Or she travels to some other state that has a similar position on abortion to Texas, in which case that state will extradite her to Texas, and then they'll prosecute her. Won't that be a lovely position for the country to be in?
- A very bad time for Democrats at the mid-terms. Historically there's almost always a push back on the President's party at the mid-terms and I think it'll be very bad this time. The causes for that will be several - Biden's (and the Democrats') lacklustre performance since 2020, the Trumpites' eagerness to go along with whatever he says, and the lack of the urgency felt in 2020 by Democrat voters. I think it will be mitigated, if at all, only slightly by a Roe vs Wade pushback. Liberal women are horrified at the decision and will be more emphatic about voting Democrat...but they would have voted Democrat anyway. It won't push any Republicans to the liberal side...at best it might get a few 'undecideds' to vote Democrat. It won't be anything like enough. The Dems will lose their majority in both houses, which will make the rest of Biden's term even less remarkable than the first two years. And no, despite the urgings of some of their voters, the Republicans in power won't be stupid enough to try to impeach Biden.
- Trump running to become the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. He'll be the same Trump as last time, except moreso. He'll throw out even more irrational lies against his opponents (and anybody else he feels like attacking). There'll be some new revelations about his behaviour before 2020 and his behaviour while he was President, and the Trumpites won't care. He'll win in a landslide.
- Trump winning the 2024 Presidential election. It won't be close. The Trumpites will be as fired up as they were in 2020, but the Democrats won't. The anti-Trump vote was what pushed Biden's tally so high in 2020, but after almost four (4) years without Trump as President, people's memories will fade. There (obviously) won't be the same "get him out of power at all costs" mentality that there was in 2020, and there won't be a "keep him out of power at all costs" mentality to take over. He might even win the popular vote. But if he doesn't win every state except the very solidly liberal ones, he'll whine about the states he lost and say there was cheating and fraud and he should have won there, too. He'll appoint a committee to investigate and, like the committee investigating all the California fraud in 2020, it'll quitely disband a year later after being completely unable to find the slightest shred of evidence of any cheating or fraud. Trumpites won't care. They'll continue echoing whatever lies he comes up with.
- While Trump is in power, he will of course appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court (assuming a vacancy comes up during his term), happily turning a blind eye (like all the Trumpites) to the lies those justices will tell in order to get appointed ("established law").
- During his term, unfettered by the need to keep voters onside for the next election (if he was ever fettered by that at all), Trump will be more Trumplike than he was previously. Expect him to behave like a nine-year old, insulting, attacking, increasing his already impressive count of lies and in general 'MLSA' - Making America the Laughing stock of the world Again.
- Thanks to Thomas' little agenda, an obliging state will declare same-sex marriage illegal and it will wind its way to the Supreme Court, where the conservative majority will find that there's not a Constitutional right to it after all and will overturn Obergefell v. Hodges. The country will descend to a patchwork of some states where it's legal and some states where it's not, and there'll be endless lawsuits about how, whether and under what circumstances the 'not' states will have to recognise same-sex marriages made (a) during the time when there was a constitutional right to it and (b) after the time when there was a constitutional right to it but in states where it is legal. Oh, and Kavanaugh and co will demonstrate again how stupid people were to believe him when he lied about the effect of the overturning of Roe on other rights. Conservative 'Christians', of course, will not care in the least that a Justice in the highest court in the land lied, just like they don't care now that he did so to get to that court.
- Further erosion of the 1st amendment as Christian rules/laws/traditions get further enshrined into law and courts increasingly find that no, doing so isn't a violation of the Constitution at all. Rights of all of those who are not conservative 'Christians' will decrease.
- After their joy at getting same-sex marriage ruled to not be constitutionally protected, the conservative 'Christians' will go after Lawrence v. Texas and find an obliging state to declare sodomy illegal (but only between two males, of course). It'll go up to the Supreme Court where, surprise, surprise, they'll decide that the Constitution doesn't protect the right of consenting adults to do what they like in their own bedrooms, and homosexuality will be effectively illegal in about half of the country.
- So the conservative 'Christians' have managed to get rid of constitutional protection for homosexual acts and same-sex marriage. Now they'll go after offending heterosexuals and look to getting Griswold v. Connecticut overturned, then pass laws against couples (even married ones) using contraceptives.
- They'll probably wait until Thomas is off the bench before they go for Loving v. Virginia. Again, their path will be some hick state prosecuting somebody and it ending up at the Supreme Court. But I think this step is some decades away.
- Now entering really long range stuff...Brown v. Board of Education? Wouldn't surprise me.
In short, a bad time for civil rights in America. The left has worked hard over the last fifty or sixty years to improve rights for all kinds of minorities - now the right will work just as hard to take them away again. Well, except for their own, of course. They'll be doing everything they can to get more rights for male conservative 'Christians'. And in fifty or sixty years, all the women and minorities who voted conservative will realise that they have nobody to blame but themselves.
There's a scene in the show Handmaid's Tale where the conservative 'Christians' have finally won and taken over. A woman who has been instrumental in getting them there, who for years was an author and lecturer pushing the 'Christian' conservative agenda, is very excited and wants to go into the chamber where the conservative 'Christians' now in power are debating and discussing how their new state will move forward - she, an intelligent woman, wants to contribute. She is very firmly told that her opinion is not needed, and sent home. This is men's business. It's only then that she realises what she's done to herself and other women. I find that likely to be prophetic...