ID and Probability calculations

Fewer assumptions isn’t the same as no assumptions which is what’s needed to truly date something. We can know the approximate age of a person because we have seen humans grow from birth. No human has ever observed the earth since it began so you can never actually know it’s true age.
I'm pleasantly surprised to see you in this forum.
Have you done any reading about the methods used to date the earth, the fossils, and the fossil layers? Radioisotope decay, Carbon-14 dating, Uranium-238 dating? This is one of the subjects I'm interested in looking into in the near future but I'm not sure where to start besides Google.
I purchased a book on Amazon called The Age of Everything by Hedman that was recommended by Jerry Coyne.
 
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Anyway, the question is have you seen what you claim?
Irrelevant. I have never seen Chicago; does that make me correct if I clam that Chicago does not exist.

Therefore not evolution
Evolution can occur within a species as well as evolving new species. Evolution can result in a new species, or it can result in minor changes within the same species, such as eye colour or Covid resistance.

These are two different species are they not?
They are. Crossbreeds are only 50% fertile, so interbreeding is impaired between lions and tigers. Evolution is a gradual process, so separation between species happens gradually. Horse and donkey crossbreeds (mules/hinnies) are 100% infertile but the two species can still produce live offspring. Further genetic separation will prevent any live offspring being produced.

Therefore mules are not another species according to the definition of species.
Yes, mules are not a species because they cannot breed with other mules.

You just exposed your ignorance... Lions and Tigers belong to the same family . Horses and mules belong to the same family. However Elephants and kangaroos belong to different families.
The evidence shows that lions and tigers are the most closely related, in the same family as you say. Similarly for horses, donkeys and zebras (see zebroid). Kangaroos and elephants have a much larger degree of separation and so cannot produce live crossbreeds. This is to be expected from evolution. The further apart species are on the evolutionary tree the smaller the chance of viable crossbreeds.
 
Sorry, the only lying done is but your sources. You can’t scientifically prove old earth because the scientific method requires observation and testing. We all have the same evidence, you just have a different interpretation.
We do not have the same sources. You rely on Genesis as a source; science does not. Furthermore, you think that your particular interpretation of Genesis (one interpretation among many) is superior to science. That is an error. You are relying on one set of human theologians, the YEC theologians, to be correct as opposed to the Theistic Evolution theologians or the OEC theologians. Those theological arguments are not part of science.

Fewer assumptions isn’t the same as no assumptions which is what’s needed to truly date something. We can know the approximate age of a person because we have seen humans grow from birth. No human has ever observed the earth since it began so you can never actually know it’s true age.
Rocks have been on earth since the beginning, and the evidence in those rocks tells us the age of the planet. Light has been in the universe since the beginning, and the evidence in that light tells us the age of the universe.

Your criterion "no human has ever observed..." is not good. No human ever observed the flood waters receding from the Americas. At the time the only eight humans alive on earth were somewhere in eastern Turkey. Direct human observation is not required, or are you claiming that America is still underwater? Somehow I think not. Evidence collected after the event is sufficient.
 
I'm pleasantly surprised to see you in this forum.
Have you done any reading about the methods used to date the earth, the fossils, and the fossil layers? Radioisotope decay, Carbon-14 dating, Uranium-238 dating? This is one of the subjects I'm interested in looking into in the near future but I'm not sure where to start besides Google.
I purchased a book on Amazon called The Age of Everything by Hedman that was recommended by Jerry Coyne.
At the risk of teaching you to suck eggs, could I also suggest Radiometric Dating - A Christian Perspective by Dr. Wiens.
 
I just laid out for you why we do have evidence of speciation: the nested hierarchy of organisms - both through their morphology and their genetics - is just what we'd expect from a historical, genealogical process. When it walks and quacks like a duck, it's a duck. There's more to say on that, but I'll do that later on in this post.
Right, a duck is a duck but according to evolution eventually it could eventually be a rabbit or something else.
And that's what evolution says, when you look at it going from just one organism to their offspring. Evolution merely says that the very slight changes from parent to offspring in DNA can add up over time to produce another species.
But evolution cannot actually be scientifically proven as no one has actually observed one species evolve into a different one.
Separate from how much evidence there is for that, can I ask you, why couldn't those small changes add up over time to make a new species? What's preventing that? Also, how long do you think it would take for small changes to add up to a new species? Or a new genus?
Because those changes do not add the type of information that’s needed. Many animals like crocodiles have remained just about the same for the last supposed 200 million years so where are the animals in the 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 point of their evolution. It’s not just intermediary fossils that are missing but all the living animals at the different stages of evolution.
All those half-organisms are merely the organisms that show some similarity with each other that you have dismissed as merely being similar and not relatives evolutionarily.
They are relatives because their ancestors have a common designer. He created all living organisms from the materials he used to create the universe. There was one special creature made in his likeness that’s also quite good a designing intelligently.
But because of the nested hierarchy, there will be countless half-animals (so to speak) that we will never see because they lie outside of the hierarchy. That's what the nested hierarchy means - these animals have a genealogical relationship, but these don't.
If evolution were true then at anytime there should be all types of animals in different stages, where are they?
That's what makes the designer claim unfalsifiable and therefore meaningless. Unless you can say what the designer could not have designed (like evolution does for itself), there's no evidence that will falsify the claim. It's Sagan's dragon.

It's not a question of when you think ID will be dismissed, but a question of you not being able to say when it would have to be dismissed: what would we see - even if we never see it - in order to conclude that ID was wrong?
Show me a living half deer, half octopus with the fossil records showing the small incremental changes.

You're still missing it. *Any* patter of similarities/differences - all similar, all different, some similarities/differences - is compatible with the ID claim. That's the problem.
I don’t see how that’s a problem. Logically, an intelligent designer can create two things that are both similar and completely different. We see it with humans everyday.
 
Right, a duck is a duck but according to evolution eventually it could eventually be a rabbit or something else.
Incorrect. According to evolution birds and mammals are too far separated for one to evolve into the other. If you wish to criticise evolution then you should learn more about it, so your criticism is relevant.

But evolution cannot actually be scientifically proven as no one has actually observed one species evolve into a different one.
Science does not do proof, that is for mathematics. Science does evidence. You can see the evidence in papers like Lyko (2017) and Tauber & Tauber (1977). Again, you need to learn more about how science works if you want to make relevant criticisms.

Because those changes do not add the type of information that’s needed.
What type of information? How do we measure that type of information? Can you supply some references to ID research papers with experimental results confirming what you are saying here? This is science, so you need to supply enough relevant scientific evidence to support your claims.

They are relatives because their ancestors have a common designer. He created all living organisms from the materials he used to create the universe. There was one special creature made in his likeness that’s also quite good a designing intelligently.
Thank you, Reverend. Theology is two doors down, on the right.

If evolution were true then at anytime there should be all types of animals in different stages, where are they?
Again, you need to learn more about the subject before posting. In this case you should read up on Punctuated Equilibrium.

Show me a living half deer, half octopus with the fossil records showing the small incremental changes.
That is something you should be looking for. If such an animal, or a fossil, were found, then it would go a long way towards falsifying evolution.

I don’t see how that’s a problem. Logically, an intelligent designer can create two things that are both similar and completely different. We see it with humans everyday.
It is a problem if ID wants to be considered as science. In effect you are saying that since your designer can design anything at all, then there is no possible biological, fossil or biochemical evidence that would falsify ID. In effect, because ID can explain absolutely anything it is scientifically useless.

If the answer to every question is "The Designer did it that way." then there is no point in asking any questions. The answers to all possible questions are already known.
 
Right, a duck is a duck but according to evolution eventually it could eventually be a rabbit or something else.
So you have no actual argument or rejoinder to my point. Then my point stands until you do.

But evolution cannot actually be scientifically proven as no one has actually observed one species evolve into a different one.

Because those changes do not add the type of information that’s needed.
Why can't they?

Many animals like crocodiles have remained just about the same for the last supposed 200 million years so where are the animals in the 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 point of their evolution. It’s not just intermediary fossils that are missing but all the living animals at the different stages of evolution.
It's already been explained to you that some animals in stable environments may not change much at all. Also, we went through the point that you don't need some arbitrary number of intermediates, and you already agreed that you don't need every step. Why, then, are you still insisting on some arbitrary number of intermediates?

They are relatives because their ancestors have a common designer. He created all living organisms from the materials he used to create the universe. There was one special creature made in his likeness that’s also quite good a designing intelligently.
But it's already been explained why the designer hypothesis, being unfalsifiable, is a meaningless claim. You have to be able to say that some organism or pattern of ancestry would be impossible for the designer to do; otherwise, there's no way to say it's false - whether it is or not - based on any evidence.

If evolution were true then at anytime there should be all types of animals in different stages, where are they?
No it doesn't. It just doesn't. Please at least understand what you don't agree with.

Show me a living half deer, half octopus with the fossil records showing the small incremental changes.
Evolution doesn't predict a half deer or half octopus. I don't even know what such organisms could be, or look like.
I don’t see how that’s a problem. Logically, an intelligent designer can create two things that are both similar and completely different. We see it with humans everyday.
You have to be able to say that some organism or pattern of ancestry would be impossible for the designer to do; otherwise, there's no way to say it's false - whether it is or not - based on any evidence.
 
You apparently think that we need to observe directly some phenomenon in order to make a conclusion about it, but if that were true, no homicide detective could solve any murder unless they observed it directly.
Homicide detectives don’t always get it right even with forensics and still there are many cold cases and wrongfully imprisoned people. Plus, you’re the one who said you would need to interrogate God himself as proof.
 
Homicide detectives don’t always get it right even with forensics and still there are many cold cases and wrongfully imprisoned people.
Because homicide deceives do sometimes get it right means that one don't necessarily have to have direct observation of a phenomenon to draw a conclusion about it. Cold cases are merely the detective being properly judicious and not jumping to a conclusion without sufficient evidence, nothing wrong about that.

Plus, you’re the one who said you would need to interrogate God himself as proof.
I always to my memory, have another test for what I would accept as - not proof - sufficient evidence to believe in a god, and it's not interrogation.

Can you quote (copy and paste) whatever post of mine I said that in?
 
We do not have the same sources. You rely on Genesis as a source; science does not.
Genesis and science is my source.
Furthermore, you think that your particular interpretation of Genesis (one interpretation among many) is superior to science. That is an error. You are relying on one set of human theologians, the YEC theologians, to be correct as opposed to the Theistic Evolution theologians or the OEC theologians. Those theological arguments are not part of science.
Again, people disagreeing with other isn’t a valid argument.
Rocks have been on earth since the beginning, and the evidence in those rocks tells us the age of the planet. Light has been in the universe since the beginning, and the evidence in that light tells us the age of the universe.
No, your interpretation of said evidence is what gives you a false age.
Your criterion "no human has ever observed..." is not good. No human ever observed the flood waters receding from the Americas. At the time the only eight humans alive on earth were somewhere in eastern Turkey. Direct human observation is not required, or are you claiming that America is still underwater? Somehow I think not. Evidence collected after the event is sufficient.
Right, the Grand Canyon along with all the fossils in North America is proof of the flood.
 
Genesis and science is my source.
If you want your science to be stuck in the late Bronze Age, then that is your choice. However, you should not expect the modern science community to follow you back to the past.

Again, people disagreeing with other isn’t a valid argument.
Monophysites and dyophysites have been disagreeing since the Council of Chalcedon in 451 CE. That shows that theologians do not have a working process to resolve disagreements. Scientists also have disagreements, however science has a working process to resolve such disagreements: make predictions and do the indicated experiments. No scientific dispute has lasted as long as some theological disputes.

Disagreements happen, but that means you need a system to resolve such disagreements, rather than letting them continue for over a thousand years.

No, your interpretation of said evidence is what gives you a false age.
Not my interpretation, and the evidence comes from many independent sources: cosmology, astronomy, geology, biology and others. Multiple independent sources are more reliable than a single, disputed, interpretation of an old book.

Right, the Grand Canyon along with all the fossils in North America is proof of the flood.
And your evidence that all this happened within a single year is? There were floods in New Orleans in 2005. There were floods in Kentucky this year. Those floods are, obviously, not evidence for the Genesis flood. You need to show evidence of the dates for those fossils and for the Grand Canyon that you are claiming as evidence, and all those dates need to be within a single year.
 
Incorrect. According to evolution birds and mammals are too far separated for one to evolve into the other. If you wish to criticise evolution then you should learn more about it, so your criticism is relevant.
So what can a mammal evolve to?
Science does not do proof, that is for mathematics. Science does evidence. You can see the evidence in papers like Lyko (2017) and Tauber & Tauber (1977). Again, you need to learn more about how science works if you want to make relevant criticisms.
With science we can observe and test thus it can prove many things like the biological parents of a child.
What type of information? How do we measure that type of information? Can you supply some references to ID research papers with experimental results confirming what you are saying here? This is science, so you need to supply enough relevant scientific evidence to support your claims.
If a land animal is evolving into a sea animal it would need to add information to breathe and swim under water.
Thank you, Reverend. Theology is two doors down, on the right.
And your fairytale room is three doors down.
Again, you need to learn more about the subject before posting. In this case you should read up on Punctuated Equilibrium.
The fossil record doesn’t support the evolutionary claim and thus the idea of punctuated equilibrium came along but there isn’t any actual evidence for it.
That is something you should be looking for. If such an animal, or a fossil, were found, then it would go a long way towards falsifying evolution.
So finding an animal that is in the middle of evolving into another animal would falsify evolution?
It is a problem if ID wants to be considered as science. In effect you are saying that since your designer can design anything at all, then there is no possible biological, fossil or biochemical evidence that would falsify ID. In effect, because ID can explain absolutely anything it is scientifically useless.
Humans create and design things that are similar and completely different all the time so we have scientific evidence that an intelligent designer can do both.
If the answer to every question is "The Designer did it that way." then there is no point in asking any questions. The answers to all possible questions are already known.
Science is necessary to learn how things work and why they work that way. Countless things intelligent humans create are based on designs found in the world around us. Your fairytale origin story isn’t necessary for actual science.
 
Because homicide deceives do sometimes get it right means that one don't necessarily have to have direct observation of a phenomenon to draw a conclusion about it. Cold cases are merely the detective being properly judicious and not jumping to a conclusion without sufficient evidence, nothing wrong about that.
When they do get it right is because there’s enough evidence. You can’t compare homicide to the origin of the earth because unlike the origin of the earth humans, sadly, commit and witness homicides every day so detectives have great knowledge of how to interpret the evidence. No human witnessed the origin of the earth or anything else in the universe.
I always to my memory, have another test for what I would accept as - not proof - sufficient evidence to believe in a god, and it's not interrogation.

Can you quote (copy and paste) whatever post of mine I said that in?
I didn’t say interrogation was they only proof you’d accept but you did say it would be enough.

Post #458 “ I’m pretty sure being able to interrogate the designer, and to see the designer work through his process successfully - like watching someone build a building - would be enough
 
When they do get it right is because there’s enough evidence.
Exactly! That means that direct observation of things that aren't the phenomenon in question - phenomenon like evolution, the big band, a murder that wasn't witnessed, etc. - can still demonstrate that those phenomenon happened. So your previous requirement that we have to observe evolution happening is nonsensical.

You can’t compare homicide to the origin of the earth because unlike the origin of the earth humans, sadly, commit and witness homicides every day so detectives have great knowledge of how to interpret the evidence. No human witnessed the origin of the earth or anything else in the universe.
There is a thing called the science of geology in which people have great knowledge about what the evidence means.

I didn’t say interrogation was they only proof you’d accept but you did say it would be enough.

Post #458 “ I’m pretty sure being able to interrogate the designer, and to see the designer work through his process successfully - like watching someone build a building - would be enough
I didn't say God, I said the designer (which are distinct concepts: every designer need not be a god). However, I mis-interpreted your comment as what I thought would be sufficient for belief in a god, not in a designer. Given all that, I stand by my comment in post #458.

Also, you said in post #569 that I would **need** to interrogate god. I didn't say I need to, I said it would be sufficient, and didn't say interrogation alone would suffice, see about about watching the process.

Other than all of that, you got it just about right. /s
 
So what can a mammal evolve to?
A mammal can evolve to a different mammal. That might be a small change, or over time a larger change. The original population of deuterostomes have evolved over time into many different forms of deuterostome, including humans. We are deuterostomes.

With science we can observe and test thus it can prove many things like the biological parents of a child.
Science does evidence. If there is a 98.7% DNA match then that is called "proof", but that is actually a way of saying "overwhelming evidence", and shorter to say as well. What a court will accept is different from what science will accept. Scientific measurements come with a level of uncertainty, hence they are evidence, not proof. For example, the value of the fine structure constant is 0.0072973525693(11). That (11) at the end is a measure of the error in the value, in this case between ...5704 and ...5682

If a land animal is evolving into a sea animal it would need to add information to breathe and swim under water.
No. It would just need to evolve to hold its breath for longer, as whales and dolphins have done. Evolution can follow many paths, not all of them obvious. As to information, evolution can easily add information with insertion mutations and duplication mutations. These mutations have been observed to happen repeatedly.

The fossil record doesn’t support the evolutionary claim and thus the idea of punctuated equilibrium came along but there isn’t any actual evidence for it.
Your sources are lying to you again. The fossil record supports punctuated equilibrium.

So finding an animal that is in the middle of evolving into another animal would falsify evolution?
An animal in the process of evolving obviously does not falsify evolution, it supports evolution. A chimera, composed of parts from two or more different species, such as a mermaid or a pegasus, would falsify evolution.

You appear to have a misunderstanding of what evolution does. For example, about one third of humans have some type of lactase persistence mutation. Other humans have mutations that adapt them for high altitude; those mutations are found primarily in Tibet, the Andes and in Kenya. Mutations in the real world are not like they are in comics.

Humans create and design things that are similar and completely different all the time so we have scientific evidence that an intelligent designer can do both.
I did not ask for similarity or difference. I asked for something that your proposed designer could not design. Absent such a description, then ID is lacking a falsification criterion, and becomes irrelevant as science.

Your fairytale origin story isn’t necessary for actual science.
Fairytale? My origin story does not have a talking serpent and two magic trees. I know which one looks more like a fairytale. Do you?
 
An animal in the process of evolving obviously does not falsify evolution, it supports evolution. A chimera, composed of parts from two or more different species, such as a mermaid or a pegasus, would falsify evolution.

Just read this interesting article on a human being with parents from two different species. The amazing thing is the science that's able to detect this, and the luck to find the specimen. We knew this happened. Now we have very strong,direct evidence, in addition to the very strong, indirect, genetic evidence.
 
So you have no actual argument or rejoinder to my point. Then my point stands until you do.
Nested hierarchy is an assumption but it isn’t not proven based on the evidence we have. God created animals and plants according to their kind so it makes sense that there are hierarchies within those kinds (creation orchard) which is exactly what we can observe in fossils and living animals today.

In fact, it’s what we’d expect to see with ID. If he designed a functional and beneficial part like the eye then we’d expect to see many different variations on many different kinds of animals. This is consistent with intelligent design as humans do the very same thing, the wheel is an example.


Why can't they?
It’s your assumption which is impossible to confirm or deny since no one has or can live long enough to observe those changes.
It's already been explained to you that some animals in stable environments may not change much at all. Also, we went through the point that you don't need some arbitrary number of intermediates, and you already agreed that you don't need every step. Why, then, are you still insisting on some arbitrary number of intermediates?
It’s not arbitrary. If you say that those changes took place little by little during millions of years then there should be hundreds of thousands of intermediaries. Supposedly a hoofed animal evoled into a whale in 8-16 million years so there should be thousands and thousands of intermediary fossils not the dozen or less that’s normally shown which is really just different animals with similarities just as exists today.
But it's already been explained why the designer hypothesis, being unfalsifiable, is a meaningless claim. You have to be able to say that some organism or pattern of ancestry would be impossible for the designer to do; otherwise, there's no way to say it's false - whether it is or not - based on any evidence
And it’s already been explained that no matter what new evidence is found, evolutionists just adjusts their theory to fit it in making it unfalsifiable.
No it doesn't. It just doesn't. Please at least understand what you don't agree with.
You just don’t seem to understand the logical conclusion of your own beliefs. You say animals evolve over time, from one type to another, yet you can’t go to any point in history to find the middle point between a land animal and a sea animal nor do you have a record of those transitional fossils.
Evolution doesn't predict a half deer or half octopus. I don't even know what such organisms could be, or look like.
Doesn’t matter what evolution predicts because no one can live long enough to prove it which makes it unfalsifiable
 
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