My Hurricane Ian Prediction

glenlogie

Well-known member
You don't think aerodynamics is settled enough to trust that planes can fly?

I do not begin each day in the lab trying to reinvent the wheel. I accept the conclusions of previous experiements and use those conclusions to design nextgen experiments. If those experiments give odd results, I might question the previous results. That is how science works at the cutting edge. However, much of science has been so well established that it is accepted.
If you are using aerodynamics to try and prove climate change then I question your abilities as a scientist.
 

glenlogie

Well-known member
You don't think aerodynamics is settled enough to trust that planes can fly?

I do not begin each day in the lab trying to reinvent the wheel. I accept the conclusions of previous experiements and use those conclusions to design nextgen experiments. If those experiments give odd results, I might question the previous results. That is how science works at the cutting edge. However, much of science has been so well established that it is accepted.

Always accepting that things are settled is a sign of complacency.
 

Gondwanaland

Well-known member
So you think we should dismiss these predictions and just keep using fossil fuels with no effort to transition to renewable energy sources?
More strawmen, you just can't help yourself.

I think we should be using actual reliable energy like nuclear, something that liberals like yourself have been trying to villify for decades.
 

vibise

Well-known member
A hurricane is not proof of climate change. Actual scientists know that.
All scientists say that no specific hurricane can be attributed to climate change, but they can point to trends in hurricane properties that align with expectations of climate change science.
 

Reepicheep

Well-known member
The following taken from last night's episode of Amanpour and Company. Leah Stokes is a Professor of Environmental Politics at the University of California Santa Barbara. In the following excerpt, Stokes is talking about Governor Ron DeSantis' comment that Ian was a 1-in-500 year storm event.

"Increasingly we can't use those phrases anymore because we have already warmed the planet by more than one degree centigrade, and the impacts are being seen and felt constantly. What's happening is when we warm the planet, we basically put a lot of extra energy into the oceans, the oceans get warmer, and so we're starting to see that when hurricanes hit warm ocean temperatures they intensify, they get stronger. That's why we saw hurricane Ian almost hit the coast as a Category 5 hurricane. There are very few hurricanes that have ever done that before, this is the fifth most strong storm that we've seen hit American land in American history. So we have to be rewriting those statements 'once in 500 years', I don't think so. This is going to be once in a decade maybe going forward, and that's really devastating, and it's all the more reason why we have to take on the climate crisis." - Leah Stokes

That's the situation in a nutshell. Leah's comment describes perfectly what just happened with Fiona and Ian.
 

Misfit

Well-known member
The following taken from last night's episode of Amanpour and Company. Leah Stokes is a Professor of Environmental Politics at the University of California Santa Barbara. In the following excerpt, Stokes is talking about Governor Ron DeSantis' comment that Ian was a 1-in-500 year storm event.



That's the situation in a nutshell. Leah's comment describes perfectly what just happened with Fiona and Ian.
It does not matter if it's 1-in-a 500 year event or not. Climate, all kinds of climate, is normal for this planet and it is clear that the climate fanatics have gone off the deep end.
 

Gondwanaland

Well-known member
All scientists say that no specific hurricane can be attributed to climate change, but they can point to trends in hurricane properties that align with expectations of climate change science.
Except they can't because there are no such trends
 

Gondwanaland

Well-known member
The following taken from last night's episode of Amanpour and Company. Leah Stokes is a Professor of Environmental Politics at the University of California Santa Barbara. In the following excerpt, Stokes is talking about Governor Ron DeSantis' comment that Ian was a 1-in-500 year storm event.



That's the situation in a nutshell. Leah's comment describes perfectly what just happened with Fiona and Ian.
It sounds like you and your professor of "environmental politics" doesn't grasp what a "1-in-500 year storm event" means and how that works.

That doesn't mean it happens once every 500 years.

You can have an event like that happen this year and then again next year.

There's no schedule it follows. A storm doesn't go "oh, drat, it's only been 10 years I have to wait 490 more years"

All it means is there is a percentage likelihood every year of 0.2% of an event that size happening.

Good grief, the geologic and meteorological ignorance.
 

4Him

Administrator
Staff member
All scientists say that no specific hurricane can be attributed to climate change, but they can point to trends in hurricane properties that align with expectations of climate change science.
Like the fact that hurricanes are not increasing in frequency?
 

Michael R2

Well-known member
Except they can't because there are no such trends
There are some found, and they are still being studied. Here is one paper (from 2007) which shows the complexity of discerning trends.

4. Concluding Remarks​

[22] The time-dependent differences between the UW/NCDC and JTWC best track records underscores the potential for data inconsistencies to introduce spurious (or spuriously large) upward trends in longer-term measures of hurricane activity. Using a homogeneous record, we were not able to corroborate the presence of upward trends in hurricane intensity over the past two decades in any basin other than the Atlantic. Since the Atlantic basin accounts for less than 15% of global hurricane activity, this result poses a challenge to hypotheses that directly relate globally increasing tropical SST to increases in long-term mean global hurricane intensity.

The trend in intensification is noted for, at least, the Atlantic basin.
 

Reepicheep

Well-known member
The following taken from last night's episode of Amanpour and Company. Leah Stokes is a Professor of Environmental Politics at the University of California Santa Barbara...
Below is another interesting quote from last night's episode:

"Climate change is making hurricanes more destructive. In 2019 one study found that the biggest and most damaging hurricanes are now three times more likely than they were 100 years ago." - Leah Stokes
 

Reepicheep

Well-known member
The following taken from last night's episode of Amanpour and Company. Leah Stokes is a Professor of Environmental Politics at the University of California Santa Barbara...

One final exchange from last night:

AMANPOUR: Are the deniers less powerful than they used to be, when this (climate change) was a matter of debate?

STOKES: Absolutely! First of all, why did we have a debate about climate change in the first place? It turns out that fossil fuel companies and electric utilities spent decades sowing misinformation. They got their talking points into President's speeches, they got them into high school textbooks, so it's no wonder that for a long time Americans were confused about the climate crisis. That was an intentional thing by fossil fuel companies so that they could continue to extract pollution and really endanger all of us. But now Americans are seeing what is happening on their doorstep. They see these horrible hurricanes. They see devastating flooding in places like Kentucky or heatwaves baking the entire west coast. You know, year after year these extreme events are getting more and more common, and so the fact is from a public opinion perspective the American people want our governments to act. They know that climate change is happening now, and we need the Republicans in power, whether that's Governor DeSantis or folks in the Senate to actually get on the side of the American people and start working on climate solutions.
 

Authentic Nouveau

Well-known member
Well, yes, there is such a thing as settled science. Would anyone get on a plane if aerodynamics was not considered settled?
Too bad you people can't explain why there isn't evidence of global warming in the mid troposphere where airplanes cruise at altitude.

And yes, as more data is accumulated, the conclusions of climate science are more supported.
So is there anything left from fauchee absurdities that hasn't been debunked?

His crazy claims

He said anyone who disagrees with him disagrees with science. We disagreed with a liar.
 
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