The answer to your question is right here.
Where?
I've no idea why you would think this would follow, but admittedly I'm not fully clear on what you mean.
You are claiming it is "
extremely unlikely", therefore you must have a way to determine the probability.
"If we can't assess the probability, then you can't say what's likely on the evidence."
Your words, not mine. Personally, I have no problem saying it is extremely unlikely, even though we cannot properly access the probability.
No, insofar as I don't endorse the contradiction you've adopted hitherto, namely "in each we case we have insufficient data to determine probability, and yet in each case I think we can still say what is likely".
So then you can tell me how you determined it is "
extremely unlikely" God created the universe two days ago, right?
I note that the pertinent question in my prior post was omitted.
I will get to that, once we have established how you assess the probability for God creating the universe two days ago. To me, the two situations are the same in this respect.
Edited to add: I should make clear that the scenario I am talking about is God creating the universe recently, rather than at a specific time. I appreciate you could argue that God could have created the universe at any point in the last decade, say, and the probability of that being at a specific moment on Friday is very small. The scenario I am discussing is God creating the universe
recently, and giving us false memories, etc.