Gus Bovona
Well-known member
What do you think about this solution to the problem of induction?
From Richard Carrier, https://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/17294In truth, we do not argue from a premise of uniformity in inductive reasoning, but to a conclusion of uniformity, by positing that uniformity as a hypothesis and weighing it against every competing hypothesis that could produce the same observations. There are essentially only two (and various combinations of the two): random chance (an observed pattern is just accidental and thus indicative of no continuance of it), and intelligent design (some Cartesian Demon is arranging things to look that way, and it could stop doing so any time now). Both can be shown to be extremely improbable—when the data are sufficiently extensive, and no evidence exists of either alternative—relative to the conclusion of uniformity (accidental patterns become exponentially unlikely all on their own, producing extremely low likelihoods; while Cartesian Demons require exponentially improbable ancillary assumptions, producing extremely low priors). This does not declare the other hypothesis absolutely false; rather, it concludes they may yet be true, but we have no reason to believe either likely. And as long as we accept that that’s all we can say, and all we have to say, the problem is solved.