The Georgia runoffs thread...

Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
According to CNN, we're almost at the 50% mark for votes-having-been-counted, and both Democrats have a 5-6% lead over their Republican challengers.

The early votes are expected to lean Democrat, because they consist of the advanced voting; the later votes are expected to lean Republican, and the rural counties often lag behind the more heavily populated areas.

aka. it's still anyone's game...
 
Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
It's a nail-biter. With about 5% left uncounted for each race, one Dem is up, and one Repub is up. Still too close to call...
 
Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
Welp, 2% left for each. Ossof's in a virtual tie right now, down by less than 2000 votes. Warnock's beat out Loeffler, with a lead of 35,000 votes.

There are supposedly ~25K left to count, and they're expected to lean Dem. HOWEVER, some 17K overseas ballots are expected to come in by Friday, and they could potentially lean Republican.

It really is pretty dramatic, down in the pecan state...
 
J

J regia

Well-known member
Whateverman said:
Welp, 2% left for each. Ossof's in a virtual tie right now, down by less than 2000 votes. Warnock's beat out Loeffler, with a lead of 35,000 votes.

There are supposedly ~25K left to count, and they're expected to lean Dem. HOWEVER, some 17K overseas ballots are expected to come in by Friday, and they could potentially lean Republican.

It really is pretty dramatic, down in the pecan state...
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And now that the Democrats only need to win the other Senate seat, the GOP must be totally delighted with the fat loser boy for urging their supporters not to vote,

He'll certainly be going out in a blaze of glory.
 
J

J regia

Well-known member
Temujin said:
1. The election is rigged. Don't bother voting.
2. The Dems got more votes.
3. I told you it was rigged.

Republican logic.
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It's the same logic process that the loser boy used when he said that reducing the number of tests done for Covid 19 would reduce the number of cases and the number of deaths per day and why he suggested injecting disinfectant, and why he thinks that Pence will overrule the voting results from the 538 voters today.
And perhaps he's got a few doctorates too.:)
 
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Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
Temujin said:
8.am GMT. Both seats go Democrat. Senate controlled by Biden.

Breathe.
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Not yet.

There's a pack of overseas votes that can be counted as late as Friday. Those votes usually are dominated by people serving in the military, which (as a bloc) tends to vote (R). I don't believe it's over yet.

But hey, it's early in the morning, and I haven't had any coffee yet; maybe I'm wrong.
 
Michael R2

Michael R2

Active member
Whateverman said:
Not yet.

There's a pack of overseas votes that can be counted as late as Friday. Those votes usually are dominated by people serving in the military, which (as a bloc) tends to vote (R). I don't believe it's over yet.

But hey, it's early in the morning, and I haven't had any coffee yet; maybe I'm wrong.
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From what I've heard so far, just over 17,000 ballots were sent out. Most, but not all of those will be returned and counted.
There are still about 12-13,000 votes still to be counted in-state. These are all in democratic leaning counties where Ossoff has been steadily receiving at least 60% of the vote.
His lead right now is just over 16,000. By the time the overseas votes are counted, his lead is likely to be larger than the number of ballots that could come back.
As you say, it isn't over yet, but it is beginning to look inevitable.
 
Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
Michael R2 said:
As you say, it isn't over yet, but it is beginning to look inevitable.
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I'm so hesitant about feeling hopeful, about almost anything. Yes, it sure looks like things are moving in the right direction, but I probably wont "rest" until the 20th :D
 
Temujin

Temujin

Well-known member
America's minority-rule Senate revealed by one staggering number | Boing Boing
Mark Frauenfelder •

From Vox: "Once Warnock and Ossoff take their seats, the Democratic half of the Senate will represent 41,549,808 more people than the Republican half."

The Senate, House, and Presidency are rigged in favor of a conservative minority. I don't know what a Democratically-led White House, Senate, and House can do to correct the imbalance, but they have two years to make it happen.
 
Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
Temujin said:
America's minority-rule Senate revealed by one staggering number | Boing Boing
Mark Frauenfelder •

From Vox: "Once Warnock and Ossoff take their seats, the Democratic half of the Senate will represent 41,549,808 more people than the Republican half."

The Senate, House, and Presidency are rigged in favor of a conservative minority. I don't know what a Democratically-led White House, Senate, and House can do to correct the imbalance, but they have two years to make it happen.
Click to expand...
Getting rid of the electoral college would spark a civil war.
 
Temujin

Temujin

Well-known member
Whateverman said:
Getting rid of the electoral college would spark a civil war.
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That's not what this article is about. The Senate is split 50/50. The Democrat Senators represent nearly 50 million more people than the Republican half. That is clearly unfair. How you would fix it, I've no idea.
 
Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
Temujin said:
That's not what this article is about. The Senate is split 50/50. The Democrat Senators represent nearly 50 million more people than the Republican half. That is clearly unfair. How you would fix it, I've no idea.
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Sorry for not reading the article. I thought it was a reference to the fact that the GOP haven't won the popular vote in decades.

I guess this has more to do with gerrymandering, then? I'll go read...
 
Whateverman

Whateverman

Well-known member
Ahhh... After reading a bit of the article, I guess I don't think the situation is as bad as the author is portraying it.

Yes, Senate representation isn't proportional to population; no shocker there. However, I think there's a lot of wobble in how he derived that ~50 million figure. His description:

Once Warnock and Ossoff take their seats, the Democratic half of the Senate will represent 41,549,808 more people than the Republican half.​
​
I derived this number by using 2019 population estimates from the United States Census Bureau. In each state where both senators belong to the same party, I allocated the state’s entire population to that party. In states with split delegations, I allocated half of the state’s population to each party. I coded Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) as Democrats. Although both men identify as independents, they caucus with the Democratic Party.​

I mean, he could be over/underestimating some of the (D) / (R) populations of these states by almost 50%. He counts the entire population of MA (for example) as (D) if we elect two Democrat Senators - even though the state voters could be split 51% / 49% D-to-R. Since not all states elected both Senators of the same party, this "wobble" wont infect his numbers by 50%, but he could still reasonably be off by 10-20 million people.

If His number drops from ~50 million to 30 million being under represented - that's only ~10% of the country's population. Not that big of a deal.

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Granted @Temujin , this is my 10 minutes of analysis; I could be wrong in a bunch of ways. However, HE could be off by enough that this malappropriation is no big deal...

edit - typos, emphasis
 
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