The Science of Climate Change ( not the Politics )

None of Snake Oil SalesMannn's clowns can produce a model that fits what happened.
Since they can't produce a correct model, they waste our time
 
Using the statement,
Science of climate change, not the politics....

Climate changes. There have been fluctuations for millennia.
If our climate was actually static, we'd not be able to live on planet earth.
As far as I've been able to ascertain, it's a cyclical system that fluctuates, just enough to scare the fearful (those who have deluded themselves into thinking they can control what is beyond their control), and allows the rest of us to learn to adapt.

Personally, I look forward to opening up real estate in Greenland and Antarctica. Two more continents to expand the human race into.
This is politics. Hardline politics. They want sceptics censored.

Under Obama money was tight and global warming research money required urgency, fear and threats to obtain grants.

They have to do sales pitches with their models to get funding and to sell gubment on crafting mandates.

Snake oil SalesMannn missed predicting the pause by a mile.
 
I get so tired of hearing about this crap. Obviously climate changes. What is the big deal?

Now they’re saying that California is going to experience an El Nine’o (el nino)

Well …….I’m not going to worry about it unless it turns into an El Ten’o!
Joe Romm at Climate progress, (funded by soros) predicted Southwestern US drought was permanent. Permanent. This year a oscillation predicted that to be total bunk. They want to blow up dams (for fishies) but how stupid was it for them to not have more flood control dams this year and more catchment of water to reduce needs from the Colorado River.

Our science groupie was whining about low water levels from drought at lake Mead. But didn't mention a POLITICAL TREATY which required so many thousands of acre feet released to go to Mexico.
 
...clowns can produce a model that fits what happened...

Well, infrared radiative transfer theory is already at the heart of all forms of remote sensing and astronomy. When paired with nonequilibrium and equilibrium thermodynamics, the well-understood physics concerning electromagnetic radiation supplies critical information that significantly contributes to our calculations regarding the Earth's atmosphere.

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Well, infrared radiative transfer theory is already at the heart of all forms of remote sensing and astronomy. When paired with nonequilibrium and equilibrium thermodynamics, the well-understood physics concerning electromagnetic radiation supplies critical information that significantly contributes to our calculations regarding the Earth's atmosphere.

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So what.

Our daughter has PhD electrical Engineering. Pilot. Professor.

Way out of the league of local science groupies.

Why do your people keep pumping out bad models and predictions?
Please answer these three questions if you wish to debate climate science:
1. What are the data sources that measure global temperature? How many are there, and where are they situated? How many independent data sets are there that measure global temperature?

2. How often have these data sets been revised, modified, or cleansed, and by whom?

3. What is the net effect of these revisions/modifications/cleansing?

Your inferior predictions are evidence of lack of science understanding and modeling.
Hide the decline
 
Go ahead and admit you can't find someone to produce accurate scientific models.

....

Scientific predictions that are produced though well-understood physical principles make it evident that climate science is not a "snake-oil" voodu chanting beliefism as literally thousands of subject matter specialists demonstrate and continue to demonstrate year-in and year-out.

About those models:

A rather impressive prediction was already provided above confirming a model analysis of the Earth's atmospheric absorption spectra with satellite instruments that collected radiometric measurements while covering a range of Planck distributions. As you can see for yourself, the data robustly matches the model. The thermal expansion of our oceans is another scientific prediction directly from thermodynamic analysis that has already prepared people living on coastlines and the United States Marines in Parris Island for rising sea levels and efforts have started to mitigate the effects of sea level rise.

Mean Sea Level Rise vs Year NCAR.jpg
Credit: Global Mean Sea Level (MSL) Rise, UCAR, Nerem

The effect of the thermal expansion of seawater is independent of the uncertainties associated with glacial melting. It's expansion an inevitable conclusion based on physics.


Researchers typically gauge the accuracy and precision of models -after- they have been put to a test. This is exactly what a team of researchers from Berkeley did by accessing the predictions produced by multiple models from 1970 - 2007 and they compared the predictions with actual measurements of the changes in global temperature through the year ~ 2020.



Results: 14 out of 17 model projections closely matched the measurements provided at a later date.


Forcast Evaluation.jpg


Still, unknown unknowns exist, and uncertainty has to be evaluated in order to continually gain understanding.



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She is the one that ran a marathon carrying a cow on her back, right?
No, that's the one who would have won an Olympic medal for swimming and/or ice skating if she hadn't sprained her wrist carrying a cow down from the mountain. The pilot with the PhD in electrical engineering is the dancer who teaches origami in Japan.
 
Our daughter has PhD electrical Engineering. Pilot. Professor.
In all this time you've spent fabricating familial accolades (more than a decade here, alone), you've never understood a simple fact:

Whatever accomplishments your mythical family members may have achieved (if they actually exist) have no relevance to the nonsense you post about science, religion or politics. None.

You are habitually (and fundamentally) unable to support the hateful, ignorant claims you make here. Your mythical daughter's PhD wouldn't change this a bit even if it actually existed.
 
In all this time you've spent fabricating familial accolades (more than a decade here, alone), you've never understood a simple fact:

Whatever accomplishments your mythical family members may have achieved (if they actually exist) have no relevance to the nonsense you post about science, religion or politics. None.

You are habitually (and fundamentally) unable to support the hateful, ignorant claims you make here. Your mythical daughter's PhD wouldn't change this a bit even if it actually existed.
On the contrary, the fact that he makes up these family members with their unbelievable achievements tells us a lot.

Look at how many Christians call him out on his fantasies. None of them.

Now think about how the story of the empty tomb, for example, could have came about. One Christian, a guy like AN, made it up. The rest said nothing, even if they privately suspected it was not true. When new converts joined the group, they naively accepted the empty tomb as truth.

We cannot know for certain that that was the case, but posts on CARM gives a great precedent for believing that one Christian lying and others not calling him on it is highly likely. Far more likely than a dead guy coming back to life, which we have never seen on CARM.
 
In all this time you've spent fabricating familial accolades (more than a decade here, alone), you've never understood a simple fact:
And your Snake Oil SalesMann was not bright enough to predict the pause.

He and you don't understand science.


Whatever accomplishments your mythical family members may have achieved (if they actually exist) have no relevance to the nonsense you post about science, religion or politics. None.

You are habitually (and fundamentally) unable to support the hateful, ignorant claims you make here. Your mythical daughter's PhD wouldn't change this a bit even if it actually existed.
Prove it. How do trolls blindly prove their "unable' assertions without gathering facts?

Your rant is political. lol
 
The influence of Climate Change on human migration ( 5/24/2023 )

"Rising temperatures due to climate change are likely influencing human migration patterns, according to a new study by Rita Issa of University College London and colleagues, published May 24 in the open-access journal PLOS Climate."

"Of the 32 studies that considered how heat impacts migration, half found a correlation between exposure to heat and the likelihood that a person will migrate. The vast majority of the 18 studies that assessed the effects of heat on migrants as they travel reported negative health impacts, such as heat related illnesses, heat stress and early death.

The research also reports that people suffered more greatly from the heat when they lived in regions with poor infrastructure, or had insufficient workplace adaptations, lower educational level and low socioeconomic status."

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References / Credit:

Tech Explorist by Plos

Issa R, Robin van Daalen K, Faddoul A, Collias L, James R, Chaudhry UAR, et al. (2023) Human migration on a heating planet: A scoping review.
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"Of the 32 studies that considered how heat impacts migration, half found a correlation between exposure to heat and the likelihood that a person will migrate.
Suggesting half did not. I do not find that very convincing.

The vast majority of the 18 studies that assessed the effects of heat on migrants as they travel reported negative health impacts, such as heat related illnesses, heat stress and early death.

The research also reports that people suffered more greatly from the heat when they lived in regions with poor infrastructure, or had insufficient workplace adaptations, lower educational level and low socioeconomic status."
Well, duh!

I do not want to play down the issues here or the reality of global warming, but...
 
Suggesting half did not. I do not find that very convincing.


Well, duh!

I do not want to play down the issues here or the reality of global warming, but...

Anthropology is a soft but useful science and I don't have a reason to doubt the results of the study.

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UN Climate Report - Switzerland

Our planet's temperature rise will likely breach 1.5 deg. C in the 2030's according to a number of "several landmark findings on the causes, impacts and solutions to climate change that have been released since 2018".
Hunchwerks

The Mannniac's gravy train would dry up if they predicted a pause. We were told more than that shortly after the Flock fleecer Snake Oil SalesMannn peddled his hockey schtick sales pitch.

Then the pause.

The crazy predictions will continue to be junk.

The Manniacs revoked all credibility with their tipping point sales pitches.

Misinformation on steroids.
 
Left winger political hype.

In the political link above

In response to the findings, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres says that all countries should bring forward their net zero plans by a decade. These targets are supposed to rapidly cut the greenhouse gas emissions that warm our planet's atmosphere.
"There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all," the report states.

Governments had previously agreed to act to avoid global temperature rise going above 1.5C. But the world has already warmed by 1.1C and now experts say that it is likely to breach 1.5C in the 2030s.
The UK government responded that the report makes it clear that countries must "work towards far more ambitious climate commitments" ahead of the UN climate summit COP28 in November.
Political hype
Political calls to "action"
Political consensus
Political mandate.

I like the political straddle.


But the world has already warmed by 1.1C and now experts say that it is likely to breach 1.5C in the 2030s.
The likelyhood of it reaching 1.5C is 50/50. according to "experts" (who all missed predicting the pause)

So the likelyhood they say of not reaching 1.5C is 50%

That means they are correct if it does or does not happen. Slick political straddle.

Snake oil SalesMannn

Dr Christy pulled "predictions" from the Hockey Stick era. 102 big shots. He followed their temp predictions and 102 out of 102 were wrong. Not even close. The gravy train for re$earch funding demands warning of heat.

Now the zinger. The tree ring circus clowns apparently are not aware of the PDO. Pacific decadal Oscillation. So if it his 1.5C, it may just be a normal top of a normal oscillation.

I need to start a thread on tipping points. The carbon concern trolls are big on tipping point threats.
 
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