Three Curtains

rstrats

Member
You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?
 

Torin

Well-known member
@Fenuay, this is called the Monty Hall paradox. It has a single, objectively correct mathematical answer. It also has a neat background story. I recommend Googling the paradox if you'd like to learn more.

It's not a 50/50 proposition. See if you can figure out why.
 

Fenuay

Well-known member
@Fenuay, this is called the Monty Hall paradox. It has a single, objectively correct mathematical answer. It also has a neat background story. I recommend Googling the paradox if you'd like to learn more.

It's not a 50/50 proposition. See if you can figure out why.
Interesting. I googled it but even still its confusing. I passed stats but I hated it. But my brother said switch and he is the math expert so I'll switch! Lol! I'll probably lose anyway!
 

Torin

Well-known member
Interesting. I googled it but even still its confusing. I passed stats but I hated it. But my brother said switch and he is the math expert so I'll switch! Lol! I'll probably lose anyway!
If you know a little bit about how to program, you can write a simple simulation to convince yourself that it isn't 50/50. I managed this in high school with some rudimentary Java knowledge, so it's not difficult or advanced at all. You may not be interested in spending the time, though.
 

rstrats

Member
A simulation with a proper sample size will show that a switch should be made, but it may not provide an understanding of why that is the case.
 

Fenuay

Well-known member
If you know a little bit about how to program, you can write a simple simulation to convince yourself that it isn't 50/50. I managed this in high school with some rudimentary Java knowledge, so it's not difficult or advanced at all. You may not be interested in spending the time, though.
I have no programming knowledge at all! I leave that to my brother and my best friend 😅
 

puddleglum

Active member
In choosing between two curtains I think I would flip a coin to decide. Proverbs 16:33 says, "The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the Lord." God knows where the car is and he also knows whether I need a new car. I would be finding out his will in the matter.
 
Top