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Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

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  • Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

    Some random headlines from newspaper articles that were published today:

    Tariffs have soybean farmers fretting over lost income

    Current soybean prices don't support farmers paying bills

    US Soybean farmers brace for loss of main market

    Soy growers disappointed in additional tariffs

    Soy, pork producers hit hard by tariffs


    and so on.

    Today the price of soybeans dropped to a near ten year low, details below.

    ************************************************** *****

    http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...8-7-1027366483

    Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

    Soybean prices dropped to a near-decade lows Friday as President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down on threats to impose $200 billion worth of additional tariffs on China, the world's largest soy importer.

    Soybeans prices fell to $8.26 a bushel for November delivery, the lowest level since late 2008. Prices have shed nearly 20% since March, when the Trump administration announced intentions to penalize China for what US officials found to be "unfair" trade practices...

  • #2
    I'm casually following this story. I'd heard the soybean market was more resilient than "alarmists" thought, and that a loss of Chinese consumers could be offset by selling to other countries.

    Of course, I've also heard that soybean farmers are unequivocally going to be hurt by Drumpf's trade war.

    I'm waiting a couple of months to see where this goes...
    Imagination is a very potent thing, and in the uneducated often usurps the place of genuine experience.

    ~ H.P. Lovecraft

    Comment


    • #3
      Awesome news. Most soybeans are used to feed hogs, chicken and livestock. Cost of meat production is down. Cost of feeding dairy cows is down..

      We have Cargill and others expanding vegetable oil production. Salad dressing costs are down. The oil is removed by 2 processes and the meal is high protein animal food




      Our Kroger milk is $1.88 a gallon. Some greenie weenies are also going to use soy for biodiesel.

      Soyboy Trudeau keeps getting thrown off his game.

      Very little pork primal cuts are exported by America. Mostly offal. So great news, the cost of hog feed is down.

      Canadians don't know much about agriculture or economics. But Trudeau KNOCKED down the value of the Canadian dollar about 10% in the past few months.

      That and his 270% dairy tariff assure us he is an idiot.

      Comment


      • #4
        This is a complicated situation, but my take is as follows.

        At this time of year, China would normally be buying huge amounts of US soybeans. Because the Chinese market has dried up, and because there is already a large US stockpile going into the fall harvest which will result in an even larger US stockpile, the US is holding a "fire sale" on soybeans in order to lessen inventory. I know numerous countries (Pakistan, Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, etc) are currently purchasing huge quantities of US soybeans, but they are buying them at a heavy discount which (as near as I can figure) is below cost for US farmers. Since foreign buyers are locking in a low price now, American farmers are being denied a higher price six months down the road.

        Trade patterns are confusing to me. In particular, I don't understand why US soybeans are selling for around $8/bushel while other countries (for example, Brazil) are selling their soybeans for $10/bushel. Over the long term (say, a year or two) soybean prices around the world should stabilize, but in the meantime American farmers will lose billions of dollars.

        *********************************

        https://www.kearneyhub.com/opinions/...86f57e140.html

        Soy, pork producers hit hard by tariffs

        As the United States and China trade dispute deepens, and Donald Trump creates a wider divide between the U.S. and its allies, we’re witnessing a financial crisis for pork producers and soybean growers.

        Pork producers have it bad, but soybean growers are facing great harm as well because China’s retaliations are resulting in what could develop into long-term market share losses unless the president alters his trade strategy.

        Soy growers earlier this year asked Trump to consider alternatives to tariffs because soy exports represent a trade surplus, as do most other U.S. agricultural products. The president didn’t listen. Next soy growers staged a fly-in to urge Congress to push the administration to rethink its tariffs. Finally, last week, soy growers attempted a social media campaign in which they attached their photos to statements sent to the president and his advisers.

        Soy growers are looking at losses in the billions of dollars. Pork producers estimate they’ll lose $2 billion this year...


        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by America View Post
          I'm casually following this story. I'd heard the soybean market was more resilient than "alarmists" thought, and that a loss of Chinese consumers could be offset by selling to other countries.

          Of course, I've also heard that soybean farmers are unequivocally going to be hurt by Drumpf's trade war.

          I'm waiting a couple of months to see where this goes...
          I think the arguments calling the market resilient have to do with the limited impact that losing the status of the preferred supplier brings. World demand is pretty constant or inflexible in the short term, so beans that do not go to China go elsewhere, albeit at a slightly lower price. The bottom line is that the tariff stuff by itself does not torpedo prices, we have weathered the loss of preferred supplier many times before (usually wrt to Canada!), without the potential of farm recession.

          The bigger issue is that the tariff stuff is happening when the US is facing a large crop, another bumper crop in Brazil, and pretty large world stockpiles. It is a perfect storm for record low commodity prices. Which may set off a farm sector recession.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by America View Post
            I'm casually following this story. I'd heard the soybean market was more resilient than "alarmists" thought, and that a loss of Chinese consumers could be offset by selling to other countries.

            Of course, I've also heard that soybean farmers are unequivocally going to be hurt by Drumpf's trade war.

            I'm waiting a couple of months to see where this goes...
            You are not an ag scientist. I get gubment subsidy checks to not plant rye. If a farmer wants to double his income, he needs to put up another mailbox.

            If Soybean prices fall, more soybeans are used for animal feed and in the plains less grain sorghum. Fuel costs up and no-till saves fuel costs. Fertilizer prices are up.



            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Nouveau View Post

              Very little pork primal cuts are exported by America. Mostly offal. So great news, the cost of hog feed is down.
              Not exactly.

              In 2017, Mexico purchased 23% of US pork exports ($1.51 billion worth), mainly in the form of whole hams. So, on the basis of Mexico alone, your claim that "very little pork primal cuts are exported" is false. The tariff Mexico has placed on pork will cost US farmers approximately $1 billion.

              In 2017, China was the second largest purchaser of pork ($1.08 billion). And, as you point out, much of their purchase was of offal. Now that China has stopped buying it, the market for American hog offal has virtually disappeared, so the direct cost to American farmers of the loss of Chinese sales will be $1 billion. It will be impossible to make up this $1 billion by selling the offal elsewhere, since no country but China wants it.

              True, the price of hog feed is down. But that savings is being taken out of the pockets of American grain farmers. Why do you think it is a good thing, that American grain farmers are losing billions of dollars in lost sales, and forced to sell high value soybeans as pig food at a huge discount, instead of selling it at a premium to China for human consumption???


              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Nouveau View Post

                You are not an ag scientist. I get gubment subsidy checks to not plant rye. If a farmer wants to double his income, he needs to put up another mailbox.

                If Soybean prices fall, more soybeans are used for animal feed and in the plains less grain sorghum. Fuel costs up and no-till saves fuel costs. Fertilizer prices are up.


                But the important point is that the export market supports the bean price. Soybean prices are already pretty low, so the domestic fed market is already using beans. The low price of hogs might trigger a reduction in the herd, which would impact soy prices. If the soy replaces sorghum in rations, I wonder what the effect would by on sorghum prices?

                Cool! I did not know that they still offered the CRP set aside. Been a while for me.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Liberals don't know the difference between income and profits. Net profits. That is why we elected a business man.

                  As a shrewd farmer and accountant, in the last weeks of the year, I and others decide how much money to make. We buy fuel, tires, equipment, fertilizer for expense deductions. These are not amortized over time. Then we also sell crops and place commodity positions. For a John Deere combine using Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System with a new MacDon header a good sized depreciation.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by reepicheep View Post
                    Some random headlines from newspaper articles that were published today:

                    Tariffs have soybean farmers fretting over lost income

                    Current soybean prices don't support farmers paying bills

                    US Soybean farmers brace for loss of main market

                    Soy growers disappointed in additional tariffs

                    Soy, pork producers hit hard by tariffs


                    and so on.

                    Today the price of soybeans dropped to a near ten year low, details below.

                    ************************************************** *****

                    http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...8-7-1027366483

                    Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

                    Soybean prices dropped to a near-decade lows Friday as President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down on threats to impose $200 billion worth of additional tariffs on China, the world's largest soy importer.

                    Soybeans prices fell to $8.26 a bushel for November delivery, the lowest level since late 2008. Prices have shed nearly 20% since March, when the Trump administration announced intentions to penalize China for what US officials found to be "unfair" trade practices...
                    I guess those Iowa soybean farmers should've believed Trump when he told them he would start a trade war with their biggest customer, China. Now they may have permanently lost that market to Brazil.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Nouveau View Post

                      You are not an ag scientist. I get gubment subsidy checks to not plant rye. If a farmer wants to double his income, he needs to put up another mailbox.

                      If Soybean prices fall, more soybeans are used for animal feed and in the plains less grain sorghum. Fuel costs up and no-till saves fuel costs. Fertilizer prices are up.


                      Wow, who knew that, among his many other careers, Nouveau was both a farmer and a welfare cheat?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by reepicheep View Post
                        Some random headlines from newspaper articles that were published today:

                        Tariffs have soybean farmers fretting over lost income

                        Current soybean prices don't support farmers paying bills

                        US Soybean farmers brace for loss of main market

                        Soy growers disappointed in additional tariffs

                        Soy, pork producers hit hard by tariffs


                        and so on.

                        Today the price of soybeans dropped to a near ten year low, details below.

                        ************************************************** *****

                        http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...8-7-1027366483

                        Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

                        Soybean prices dropped to a near-decade lows Friday as President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down on threats to impose $200 billion worth of additional tariffs on China, the world's largest soy importer.

                        Soybeans prices fell to $8.26 a bushel for November delivery, the lowest level since late 2008. Prices have shed nearly 20% since March, when the Trump administration announced intentions to penalize China for what US officials found to be "unfair" trade practices...
                        Tariffs are imposed by big government operators who would be wiser to keep government out of the free business market.
                        I am not a NPB-Onlyist (No Perfect Bible Onlyist), nor a NA/UBS-Onlyist. Marke

                        If this book be not infallible, where shall we find infallibility? We have given up the Pope, for he has blundered often and terribly; but we shall not set up instead of him a horde of little popelings fresh from college. C. H. Spurgeon

                        For that Revised Version I have but little care as a general rule, holding it to be by no means an improvement upon our common Authorized Version. C.H. Spurgeon

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by reepicheep View Post
                          Some random headlines from newspaper articles that were published today:

                          Tariffs have soybean farmers fretting over lost income

                          Current soybean prices don't support farmers paying bills

                          US Soybean farmers brace for loss of main market

                          Soy growers disappointed in additional tariffs

                          Soy, pork producers hit hard by tariffs


                          and so on.

                          Today the price of soybeans dropped to a near ten year low, details below.

                          ************************************************** *****

                          http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...8-7-1027366483

                          Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

                          Soybean prices dropped to a near-decade lows Friday as President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down on threats to impose $200 billion worth of additional tariffs on China, the world's largest soy importer.

                          Soybeans prices fell to $8.26 a bushel for November delivery, the lowest level since late 2008. Prices have shed nearly 20% since March, when the Trump administration announced intentions to penalize China for what US officials found to be "unfair" trade practices...
                          Soybeans are cheap.
                          “The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite."-Madison

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Aagcobb View Post

                            Wow, who knew that, among his many other careers, Nouveau was both a farmer and a welfare cheat?
                            Does that bother you?
                            I bought a farm when I started college. 200 miles away. Second cousin rented it. It took 20 pages of paperwork and gubment workers declared i was a farmer. Does that bother you?

                            Welfare cheat? Why would the gubment send money to not plant rye?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The problem with these socialist rants are the Marxists try to decide who makes how much. Why does the idiot TrueDolt think dairy farmers need a big haul vs families with growing children?

                              So grain prices fall, livestock income rises. Farmers diversify. Some years they make it with cattle, other years crops.

                              I know the uneducated are not into economics.

                              Reverse innelasticity of demand. People willl continue to demand carbs and protein. The traders feed speculation and the groupies start hand wringing episodes.

                              Only an idiot like trueDolt would slap 270% tariff on milk. TreauSheeple adore the soyboy.

                              Comment

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