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Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

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  • Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

    Some random headlines from newspaper articles that were published today:

    Tariffs have soybean farmers fretting over lost income

    Current soybean prices don't support farmers paying bills

    US Soybean farmers brace for loss of main market

    Soy growers disappointed in additional tariffs

    Soy, pork producers hit hard by tariffs


    and so on.

    Today the price of soybeans dropped to a near ten year low, details below.

    ************************************************** *****

    http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...8-7-1027366483

    Soybeans plunge to fresh lows as Trump's trade war persists

    Soybean prices dropped to a near-decade lows Friday as President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down on threats to impose $200 billion worth of additional tariffs on China, the world's largest soy importer.

    Soybeans prices fell to $8.26 a bushel for November delivery, the lowest level since late 2008. Prices have shed nearly 20% since March, when the Trump administration announced intentions to penalize China for what US officials found to be "unfair" trade practices...

  • Hal
    replied
    It is a game of chicken, but it is essential if we want China to increase their US imports
    Trump's tariffs could end up hurting China's economy 'very badly' over the next few months

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u.s....a-fall-sharply

    U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS TO CHINA FALL SHARPLY - EXPORTS TO CHINA DOWN 97%

    With large inventories on hand in China, it is no surprise U.S. soybean exports to that country are down to start the 2018/2019 marketing year. Way down. USDA's Federal Grain Inspection Service reveals that through the first seven weeks of the 2018/2019 marketing year, 7.4 million bushels of new-crop U.S. soybeans have been shipped to China, down 97% from previous year levels. Through the first seven weeks of the previous marketing year, the U.S. shipped 239 million bushels of soybeans to China, and during the same period in the 2016/2017 marketing year the U.S. shipped 211 million bushels...

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    In summary: Brazil and Argentina are selling every soybean they can to China, at a 25% premium over the price American farmers can get. They then buy US soybeans at a significant discount to fill their domestic demand.

    The same thing is happening in Canada with lobster (i.e., Canada is exporting all the lobster they can to China and Europe, and purchasing cheap US lobster for Canadian consumers).

    *************************************************

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-ch...192832131.html

    US-CHINA TRADE WAR WINNER: BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS

    *************************************************

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-to-argentina

    TRADE WAR SPURS SOY MERRY GO ROUND AS CHINA TURNS TO ARGENTINA

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    Originally posted by reepicheep View Post

    The price of soybeans continued to drop for the remainder of the month of August. For the month, soybeans were down 9%. On Friday August 31, prices briefly touched $8.28/bushel before closing at $8.35.
    Soybean prices have set new 10 year lows in each of the last few days. As I write this, the price for November delivery is $8.126/bushel, down $0.108 from yesterday's close.

    I suspect that the threat of more retaliatory tariffs from China, plus a record US harvest, will soon drive the price below $8/bushel. The average cost of production is around $9.50/bushel (depending upon which state the farmer lives), so farmers are losing approximately $1.50/bushel at current prices.

    Leave a comment:


  • America
    replied
    Originally posted by Nouveau View Post
    I know the uneducated
    Nouveau's posse.

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    Originally posted by Nouveau View Post

    No force at all.

    You never could deal with the fact that soybean farmers set contracts at 10 dollars last winter.
    That's interesting. If, as you claim, soybean farmers are making a profit this year, then I assume you agree that Trump is wasting the billions of dollars he is giving soybean farmers as a handout? Why do you believe it is a good thing that Trump is, in effect, throwing away billions of dollars for no good reason???

    Leave a comment:


  • Nouveau
    replied
    Originally posted by reepicheep View Post
    I just came across an interesting statistic.

    $138.4 BILLION - total US agricultural exports in 2017

    $12.4 BILLION - total soybean exports to China in 2017

    So, soybean exports to China accounted for 9% of all US agricultural exports last year. No wonder Trump is being forced to give a multi-billion dollar handout to soybean farmers.
    No force at all.

    You never could deal with the fact that soybean farmers set contracts at 10 dollars last winter.

    Why do you remind us of your lack of econ classes?

    Is there a reason non farmers like yourself do not quote inventory carryover and crop stats?

    Thank God Americans never had a stupid Wheat Board like Canadia. Talk about ignorant. The wheat board. since 1935

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    I just came across an interesting statistic.

    $138.4 BILLION - total US agricultural exports in 2017

    $12.4 BILLION - total soybean exports to China in 2017

    So, soybean exports to China accounted for 9% of all US agricultural exports last year. No wonder Trump is being forced to give a multi-billion dollar handout to soybean farmers.

    Leave a comment:


  • Promethean
    replied
    Originally posted by Nouveau View Post
    I know the uneducated are not into economics.
    You are right. The uneducated claims to be a published economist, saint, surgeon, psychiatrist, engineer, geologist, scientist, CEO, lawyer, captain and can sail at 30 knots per hour.

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    Originally posted by reepicheep View Post

    (AUGUST 16, 2018)
    One result has been a drop in soybean prices, from about $11 a bushel earlier in the year to less than $9 today — the break-even point for many farmers.
    The price of soybeans continued to drop for the remainder of the month of August. For the month, soybeans were down 9%. On Friday August 31, prices briefly touched $8.28/bushel before closing at $8.35.

    Farmers in North Dakota are having a particularly tough time, and will have to put most of their soybeans into storage. Since soybeans are very sensitive to temperature and moisture levels, they require very specific storage techniques which most farmers are not prepared for.

    Last year, China bought approximately $12 billion worth of soybeans from US farmers. Obviously, it is impossible to replace this export market in the short term. Meanwhile, Brazil plans to increase by 5% to 7% the amount of land dedicated to growing soybeans. More interestingly, it appears that Argentina is planning on buying soybeans from the US at a discounted rate, crushing the beans into meal, and selling the meal to China at a profit.

    ******************************

    http://kticradio.com/agricultural/fa...to-store-them/

    FARMERS TYPICALLY SELL SOYBEANS AT HARVEST, BUT MAY HAVE TO SCRAMBLE TO STORE THEM

    DTN’s Soybean Index for North Dakota shows the average spot cash price is $6.72 a bushel, compared to the National Soybean Index price, which is $7.42 a bushel. In May, the regional index price in North Dakota was running around $9.35 a bushel.

    “The local elevators have dramatically dropped their prices to try to provide an incentive for farmers to store it on farm,” Olson said. “Some of these elevators have gone to no-bids, meaning they are literally not offering a bid for harvest delivery. Others have dramatically lowered their prices. They are going to be able to accept some grain at harvest, but it’s really going to be very, very minimal.”

    In a typical year, about 75% of North Dakota’s soybeans move on rail to the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and its eight soybean export terminals, but local grain elevators have not had bids since June to export soybeans out of the PNW... farmers need to be prepared to store soybeans not just for a few months, but possibly as far as into next summer.



    Leave a comment:


  • juglans1
    replied
    Originally posted by Nouveau View Post
    Awesome news. Most soybeans are used to feed hogs, chicken and livestock. Cost of meat production is down. Cost of feeding dairy cows is down..

    We have Cargill and others expanding vegetable oil production. Salad dressing costs are down. The oil is removed by 2 processes and the meal is high protein animal food




    Our Kroger milk is $1.88 a gallon. Some greenie weenies are also going to use soy for biodiesel.

    Soyboy Trudeau keeps getting thrown off his game.

    Very little pork primal cuts are exported by America. Mostly offal. So great news, the cost of hog feed is down.

    Canadians don't know much about agriculture or economics. But Trudeau KNOCKED down the value of the Canadian dollar about 10% in the past few months.

    That and his 270% dairy tariff assure us he is an idiot.
    And I'm sure your Dear Leader will be delighted to pay less for his burgers and soya milk so that he and the white house princess can import more clothing from China.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nouveau
    replied
    Soybean prices are down 4.6% year-over-year.

    USDA expects global ending stocks at 105.9 million tons through 2019, above the 99.5 million ton estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Inventories stood at 95.6 million tons in the past season and 98.3 million tons in previous report.

    Stocks up 10% puts pressure on price. We have a good year and Argentina #3 had a bad year.
    Supersticous non farmers think Trump influences yield.

    Leave a comment:


  • reepicheep
    replied
    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...816-story.html

    IN SOYBEAN COUNTRY, TRUMP'S TRADE WAR WITH CHINA TESTS PATIENCE AND NERVES

    After Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese products this summer, Beijing fired back with retaliatory levies on U.S. soybeans and many other farm goods. In recent weeks, China has essentially halted new purchases of soybeans while moving to shift orders to other countries and providing incentives to its domestic farmers to produce more beans.

    One result has been a drop in soybean prices, from about $11 a bushel earlier in the year to less than $9 today — the break-even point for many farmers.

    Their worst fear is a permanent loss of the China business. Some of the older farmers remember what happened after Washington imposed a broad embargo of grain exports in 1973. Japan, worried about a stable supply of soybeans, reacted by making big investments in Brazil’s then-small soybean industry. Today, Brazil and the United States are the world’s two largest exporters of soybeans.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nouveau
    replied
    Notice none of the trolls mention rain as having impact on yields and yields having impact on price.

    The uber superstitious fear The Donald and think he has powers to depress prices. Fail Satan.

    There is a correlation between hating Trump and hating science.

    Leave a comment:

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