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Is recession more likely because of Trump's trade war?

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  • Is recession more likely because of Trump's trade war?

    1.) Germany and China are hit hard by the trade war.

    2.) Goldman Sachs states that the odds have increased that the United States could be thrown into a recession.

    3.) According to Forbes: " the pending recession has more to do with the Fed than the China trade war "

    4.) Trump cannot turn his actions around quickly.

    5.) Voters will not be kind to Trump in the next election if Trump continues with this haphazard trade policy.

    My attitude: Wait-and-see - Tomorrow might have good news.

    Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.


    Last edited by inertia; 08-14-19, 11:59 AM.
    "The exact sciences also start from the assumption that in the end it will always be possible to understand nature, even in every new field of experience, but that we make no a priori assumptions about the meaning of the word "understand"."

    Heisenberg
    .....................

    " It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, and it is the glory of a king to search out a matter. " ( Proverbs 25:2 )

  • #2
    If you voted for Gary Johnson in a swing state, then you are one of the people who can be blamed, along with the Jill Stein voters in swing states. if you want a return to sanity, in 2020 you need to vote Blue, no matter who.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Aagcobb View Post
      If you voted for Gary Johnson in a swing state, then you are one of the people who can be blamed, along with the Jill Stein voters in swing states. if you want a return to sanity, in 2020 you need to vote Blue, no matter who.
      Socialism is not the answer.


      " Millennials have embraced socialism in record numbers, and socialism, once an insult even within the Democratic party, is no longer a dirty word, at least among the party's rising stars and most engaged activists. "
      Last edited by inertia; 08-14-19, 12:06 PM.
      "The exact sciences also start from the assumption that in the end it will always be possible to understand nature, even in every new field of experience, but that we make no a priori assumptions about the meaning of the word "understand"."

      Heisenberg
      .....................

      " It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, and it is the glory of a king to search out a matter. " ( Proverbs 25:2 )

      Comment


      • #4
        I don't know whether Drumpf's silly trade wars is going to hasten a recession. I know experts have been quietly predicting one beginning in the last half of 2019 (maybe first quarter 2020).

        For the record, I expect this next election is going to prominently feature some intractable Drumpf support; a decent-sized chunk of people will vote for him no matter what his trade policies screw up.
        The people whining about Democrats looking to the government to solve problems are the same ones who want the government to define marriage, criminalize abortion, slow/stop legal immigration, save farmers, create jobs, etc.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by inertia View Post

          Socialism is not the answer.


          " Millennials have embraced socialism in record numbers, and socialism, once an insult even within the Democratic party, is no longer a dirty word, at least among the party's rising stars and most engaged activists. "
          Fortunately no Democratic candidate is promoting socialism, not even the "socialist" Bernie Sanders. And even if Bernie was elected President, he can't abolish private property and seize the means of production for the proletariat through a reconciliation bill that Joe Manchin would vote for (even assuming the Democrats manage to gain control of the Senate, which is no sure thing).

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by America View Post
            I don't know whether Drumpf's silly trade wars is going to hasten a recession. I know experts have been quietly predicting one beginning in the last half of 2019 (maybe first quarter 2020).

            For the record, I expect this next election is going to prominently feature some intractable Drumpf support; a decent-sized chunk of people will vote for him no matter what his trade policies screw up.
            It's possible that a Trump Recession can be avoided. According to J.P. Morgan, the current trade war has offset the benefits of fiscal stimulus. Yes - there are "die-hard" believers in Trump.

            Will they vote for him if a recession comes to fruition? I have reason to believe the answer depends on the voting alternatives.





            "The exact sciences also start from the assumption that in the end it will always be possible to understand nature, even in every new field of experience, but that we make no a priori assumptions about the meaning of the word "understand"."

            Heisenberg
            .....................

            " It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, and it is the glory of a king to search out a matter. " ( Proverbs 25:2 )

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by inertia View Post
              1.) Germany and China are hit hard by the trade war.

              2.) Goldman Sachs states that the odds have increased that the United States could be thrown into a recession.

              3.) According to Forbes: " the pending recession has more to do with the Fed than the China trade war "

              4.) Trump cannot turn his actions around quickly.

              5.) Voters will not be kind to Trump in the next election if Trump continues with this haphazard trade policy.

              My attitude: Wait-and-see - Tomorrow might have good news.

              Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

              Nah.
              “An atheist has to know a lot more than I know. An atheist is someone who knows there is no God.”
              Carl Sagan

              God is love.

              Comment


              • #8
                DOW TUMBLES ON RECESSION WARNING

                Stocks fall more than 600 points as a trade war and a sputtering global economy weigh heavy on investors...


                **********

                WHY THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE IS FUELLING RECESSION FEARS

                **********

                "The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55% to 60% chance of a recession over the next 12 months" - Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Bank

                **********

                Maybe, just maybe, if Trump surrenders in his trade war and lets the global economy recover, a recession can be avoided. But, personally, I've pretty well given up on Trump behaving in a responsible and competent manner in anything he does.

                At this point, I'd say the evidence points to Trump going through the 2020 election campaign while the US economy is going through a full blown recession. Which doesn't mean his followers won't willingly elect him to a second term, and joyfully shout his name as they follow him over the cliff...
                "Make America Rake Again"

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Aagcobb View Post

                  Fortunately no Democratic candidate is promoting socialism, not even the "socialist" Bernie Sanders. And even if Bernie was elected President, he can't abolish private property and seize the means of production for the proletariat through a reconciliation bill that Joe Manchin would vote for (even assuming the Democrats manage to gain control of the Senate, which is no sure thing).
                  I sincerely hope that there are more centrists on the ballot in the coming election.
                  "The exact sciences also start from the assumption that in the end it will always be possible to understand nature, even in every new field of experience, but that we make no a priori assumptions about the meaning of the word "understand"."

                  Heisenberg
                  .....................

                  " It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, and it is the glory of a king to search out a matter. " ( Proverbs 25:2 )

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by reepicheep View Post
                    DOW TUMBLES ON RECESSION WARNING

                    Stocks fall more than 600 points as a trade war and a sputtering global economy weigh heavy on investors...


                    **********

                    WHY THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE IS FUELLING RECESSION FEARS

                    **********

                    "The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55% to 60% chance of a recession over the next 12 months" - Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Bank

                    **********

                    Maybe, just maybe, if Trump surrenders in his trade war and lets the global economy recover, a recession can be avoided. But, personally, I've pretty well given up on Trump behaving in a responsible and competent manner in anything he does.

                    At this point, I'd say the evidence points to Trump going through the 2020 election campaign while the US economy is going through a full blown recession. Which doesn't mean his followers won't willingly elect him to a second term, and joyfully shout his name as they follow him over the cliff...
                    But they are a minority; everyone else will vote Blue, and Trump will be crushed in an electoral landslide. I'm not convinced a recession is coming, since employers still aren't firing people, and that always precedes a recession as workers lose purchasing power.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Yields on treasury bills...demand has inverted. First time since the Great Depression.

                      Trump's cheap money policy, which has been relied upon by Clinton, Bush, and Obama, will give us a repeat of 2008 financial crisis.

                      Home sales...once again with cheap money there is high demand and big increases in listing prices. Equals flip-flop debt. Folk can't really afford what they're paying. Bankruptcy.

                      We have a President who couldn't run a proverbial lemonade stand. No understanding of international trade. He thinks international trade equals ripping off Hispanic contractors. Christians love this counterfeit man and they're following him in his poor judgment and immorality. Someday you folk with kids will have to explain why you supported a man went to an island of perversion and liked to watch Russian prostitutes urinate.
                      Law makes a demand; Grace makes a provision.

                      Grace terrifies legalists.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by inertia View Post

                        I sincerely hope that there are more centrists on the ballot in the coming election.
                        The heavy constraints imposed on legislation by the filibuster and reconciliation rules ensures that at most only modest proposals get enacted. No Medicare for all, no free college, no green new deal. The biggest changes will be regulatory as Trump's policies are reversed.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by notreligus View Post
                          Someday you folk with kids will have to explain why you supported a man went to an island of perversion and liked to watch Russian prostitutes urinate.
                          If there's one thing Christian culture is good at - and has been good at it for centuries - it's introspection.

                          They wont have to explain anything, because they'll write off support of the orange oaf as something those false Christians did.
                          The people whining about Democrats looking to the government to solve problems are the same ones who want the government to define marriage, criminalize abortion, slow/stop legal immigration, save farmers, create jobs, etc.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by reepicheep View Post
                            DOW TUMBLES ON RECESSION WARNING

                            Stocks fall more than 600 points as a trade war and a sputtering global economy weigh heavy on investors...


                            **********

                            WHY THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE IS FUELLING RECESSION FEARS

                            **********

                            "The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55% to 60% chance of a recession over the next 12 months" - Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at TD Bank

                            **********

                            Maybe, just maybe, if Trump surrenders in his trade war and lets the global economy recover, a recession can be avoided. But, personally, I've pretty well given up on Trump behaving in a responsible and competent manner in anything he does.

                            At this point, I'd say the evidence points to Trump going through the 2020 election campaign while the US economy is going through a full blown recession. Which doesn't mean his followers won't willingly elect him to a second term, and joyfully shout his name as they follow him over the cliff...
                            The new Republican Party has to get its act together. It's clearly drifted away from its past.


                            "The exact sciences also start from the assumption that in the end it will always be possible to understand nature, even in every new field of experience, but that we make no a priori assumptions about the meaning of the word "understand"."

                            Heisenberg
                            .....................

                            " It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, and it is the glory of a king to search out a matter. " ( Proverbs 25:2 )

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by inertia View Post

                              The new Republican Party has to get its act together. It's clearly drifted away from its past.

                              Which direction is SHE drifting in?

                              Someone get me a raft!
                              The people whining about Democrats looking to the government to solve problems are the same ones who want the government to define marriage, criminalize abortion, slow/stop legal immigration, save farmers, create jobs, etc.

                              Comment

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